The Athletic released a summary and prediction for all 138 college football teams ahead of the season, and their notes on Baylor are mostly on par with how Baylor fans are feeling with kickoff less than two weeks away.

Preseason predictions

Odds to make the CFP: 5.3%
Odds to win the Big 12: 2%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 55th

These are pretty run-of-the-mill predictions when it comes to Baylor football. It's expected that The Athletic isn't going to make a bold claim in either direction; Williams predicts "about the same" as last season for the Bears.

Baylor finished 83rd in the country last year; their prediction of 55th suggests they expect some improvement from last season, but not enough to make a splash in the country.

'Why they're interesting'

"Former five-star recruit and Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway is an intriguing change-of-scenery storyline, and Aranda could be a midseason firing candidate if the team gets off to a slow start."

As far as one-sentence assessments go, this is a pretty apt one from The Athletic. Lagway certainly is the storyline and focal point of the team, while Aranda is already in the hot seat with a 36-37 record in his Baylor career.

They predict that "Aranda needs to at least reach bowl eligibility — and probably more — to keep his job," while the goal is to "unlock Lagway’s high-ceiling potential."

'Key player'

The Athletic lists junior Dawson Pendergrass as the key player for the Bears in 2026. Noting his solid 2024 season, they write, "Pendergrass is back healthy with a chip on his shoulder and a chance to be the Bears’ lead back."

While DJ Lagway is on another tier of importance for the Bears, Pendergrass is certainly going to have a say in how the season pans out in Waco. However, I think his importance lies more with the crucial running back unit as a whole than with how he individually performs.

'Game to circle'

The Athletic circles game one against Auburn as the game to keep an eye on for the Bears, which I couldn't agree with more.

Although the tigers might not be in their classic, dominant form, everyone will find out what the Bears are made of when they have to go into Mercedes-Benz and best an SEC team that beat them by two touchdowns last season.

A valid assessment?

The Athletic definitely took the safe route on the few paragraphs they wrote about Baylor, making tame predictions and fairly rudimentary analysis surrounding the team, but I think the brief assessment was valid overall. The author aptly noted the importance of the 2026 season for Lagway and Aranda along with the importance of week one against the Tigers.

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